Re-rating of Axis Bank's stock may continue in the near-future, believe analysts, as the risk-reward on the stock remains favourable amid healthy financials. The bullish stance comes after the Mumbai-based lender delivered a strong outperformance in the March quarter of fiscal year 2023-24 (Q4FY24) on core pre-provision profit and net profit, with improving asset quality. Axis Bank's net interest margin (NIM) expanded, against expectations, even in a tough market.
RBI's interest rate decision, macroeconomic data and global trends would dictate terms in the equity market in a holiday-shortened week, analysts said. Besides, the focus will also be on foreign portfolio investors' trading activity, they added. Equity markets will remain closed on Tuesday for 'Mahavir Jayanti' and on Friday on account of 'Good Friday'.
Motilal Oswal Financial Services has posted a net profit of Rs 20.4 crore, a sharp drop of 62 per cent compared to the corresponding period of the previous year. The fall is attributed to the tough market conditions. Kochi-based Geojit Financial Services has posted profit after tax of Rs 38.63 crore after the company received Rs 40 crore as compensation from BNP Paribas for discontinuing the commodity business.
For over a decade, HDFC Bank consistently outperformed industry growth rates in both deposits and advances, maintaining impeccable asset quality. Amid a landscape where other banks struggled with soaring non-performing assets (NPAs), HDFC Bank thrived, eventually surpassing ICICI Bank to become the largest private sector lender in India. Its net interest margin (NIM) remained stable in the range of 4.1-4.4 per cent.
Despite the uncertainties created by rising bond yields and oil prices, fund managers have been proactively deploying fresh flows into the equity market. The cash available with equity fund managers, which has remained lower at around 5 per cent in the past few months, hit a 16-month low of 4.8 per cent in September, shows a Motilal Oswal Financial Services report. Cash holdings in equity schemes had topped 6 per cent in February amid subdued equity market sentiment.
Investors became poorer by Rs 1.36 lakh crore on Friday as the markets witnessed a sell-off amid weak global trends. Benchmark stock indices Sensex tanked 671.15 points or 1.12 per cent to close at 59,135.13, as 21 of its scrips declined. The sharp decline in equities eroded Rs 1,36,037.96 crore from the market capitalisation of BSE-listed firms and that now stands at Rs 2,62,94,723.65 crore.
Macroeconomic data announcements, the Covid situation in China and global market cues would guide Dalal Street in the first week of trading in the New Year, analysts said. Markets would also keep a track on rupee movement, Brent crude oil prices and foreign fund investment trends. "As market players attempt to understand the Fed's stance, Indian markets may respond in lockstep with their international counterparts when the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes are made public later this week.
Titan Company on November 21, became the second Tata group firm to join Rs 3 trillion market capitalisation (market cap) club after its shares hit a new high of Rs 3,400, up nearly 2 per cent on the BSE in Tuesday's intra-day trade. At 12:28 PM; with a market cap of Rs 301,847 crore (Rs 3.02 trillion) Titan stood at number 16th position in overall market cap ranking on the BSE listed companies, the exchange data shows. Titan overtook paint company Asian Paints, which has a market cap of Rs 300,579 crore, data shows.
Bharat Forge, the Pune-based automotive component maker, has been one of the top-performing companies in its segment. The company's stock price is up 39.3 per cent since the beginning of the 2023 calendar year, surpassing other leading automotive component makers such as Bosch and Samvardhana Motherson International. The stock also outperformed the benchmark BSE Sensex, which is up 17.3 per cent year to date so far.
Investors shunned shares of oil marketing companies (OMCs) on Friday as they feared that the government's decision to cut retail prices of petrol and diesel could hurt the companies' profit margins in the near term. On Thursday, the government announced that OMCs will reduce pump prices of petrol and diesel after a record 22 months, making them cheaper by Rs 2 per litre in the national capital. The changes were effective from Friday.
India's corporate sector, including public sector enterprises (PSEs), continues to go slow on investments and capital expenditure (capex). According to data from Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOFSL), corporate investments declined for the second consecutive quarter in the April-June period (first quarter, or Q1) of 2023-24 (FY24). After a contraction of 0.5 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) in the 2022-23 (FY23) January-March quarter, corporate investments likely fell 6.2 per cent Y-o-Y in Q1FY24, write Nikhil Gupta and Tanisha Ladhaa of MOFSL in their recent report on corporate investments.
Trading in the equity market this week will be highly influenced by a host of important triggers, with quarterly earnings from IT majors TCS, Wipro, and domestic inflation and IIP data taking the centre stage in dictating the movement in equities, analysts said. Besides, global factors and trading activity of foreign investors will also drive markets. "We are approaching the first quarter earnings season, with HCL Tech, TCS and Wipro set to report their earnings this week.
Shares of Motilal Oswal Financial Services, Edelweiss Financial Services and IIFL Holdings have all doubled in the past one year against the Sensex's 23 per cent gain.
Brokerages expect India Inc to report an upturn in earnings for the March quarter of 2022-23, after a relatively muted showing in the previous two quarters. This growth is expected to be led by banking, financial services and insurance (BFSI) companies, FMCG firms, and automobile makers. The combined net profit of the Nifty50 companies (excluding Adani Enterprises) is expected to have grown 15.6 per cent to Rs 1.77 trillion in Q4FY23, from Rs 1.53 trillion a year ago.
Mutual funds (MFs) lapped up shares of new-age businesses in April at a time when most of these stocks have recovered sharply from their 52-week lows. Nykaa and Zomato featured in the list of top 10 most bought shares by MFs last month, with fund houses' holdings in these two stocks rising by over Rs 1,100 crore, shows a report by Nuvama Alternative & Quantitative Research. Shares of Zomato had staged some recovery in April after remaining subdued for an extended period.
The Indian equity market valuation has been moving in tandem with the US 10-year treasury yield. While the benchmark US bond yield has witnessed a nearly 70 basis point decline since the end of October this year, dropping from 4.93 per cent to 4.23 per cent on Friday, the Sensex earnings yield has slipped by nearly 45 basis points - from 4.5 per cent to 4.05 per cent. Previously, Indian equities' earnings yields rose in sync with the US bond yields.
With no major domestic market-moving event scheduled this week, stock market investors would largely focus on global trends and foreign fund movement, and may face volatility amid monthly derivatives expiry, analysts said. This week Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes are due for release which would provide further cues to the market, Siddhartha Khemka, Head - Retail Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd, said. "With all major events behind us, participants will take cues from global markets, crude and currency market movement.
The rupee extended its losses and slumped 10 paise to close at a record low of 77.72 (provisional) against the US dollar on Thursday, weighed down by a negative trend in domestic equities and unabated foreign fund outflows. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened lower at 77.72 against the greenback, and finally settled for the day at 77.72, down 10 paise over its previous close. During the trading session, the rupee touched an intra-day low of 77.76 and a high of 77.63.
In 2022, gold emerged as the top performer among all conventional asset classes with over 14 per cent returns mainly owing to the depreciation of the rupee.
Investors should view any bounce-back in bank stocks as an opportunity to exit the pack, analysts suggested, as the worst may not be over yet. The recent quarterly results of HDFC Bank and Axis Bank disappointed the Street, triggering a marketwide selloff by foreign institutional investors, especially in banking counters. While HDFC Bank, which was the anchor for the market correction during the past week, ended 2 per cent higher amid short covering on Wednesday, Axis Bank's shares settled 3 per cent lower.
The rupee depreciated by 9 paise and settled at its all-time low level of 83.13 against the US dollar on Wednesday, weighed down by a surge in crude oil prices and strong American currency. Forex traders said the Indian rupee depreciated as the US dollar rose to the highest levels in six months. Moreover, elevated crude oil prices also weighed on rupee.
The Mumbai-based real estate developer Oberoi Realty has been one of the top-performing companies in its segment and most brokerage remains bullish on the stock. The company's stock price is 52 per cent in the last 12 months beating the broader market by a huge margin. The benchmark BSE Sensex is up just 6.5 per cent during the period.
Stock markets are expected to see volatility this week due to potential risk from Omicron variant and monthly derivatives expiry, say analysts. "Markets will continue to see volatility and whipsaw-like movements as they respond to Omicron-related development and the monthly expiry," said Yesha Shah, head of equity research, Samco Securities. Ajit Mishra, VP - Research, Religare Broking Ltd said, "Markets are closely eyeing the COVID situation and any positive news could only help the index to make any sustainable up move else volatility will continue."
Mutual funds (MFs) are betting on a turnaround in the healthcare sector to boost returns but are divided on the prospects of the information technology (IT) sector amid uncertain growth outlook. At the end of June, all of the top 20 fund houses were overweight on the healthcare sector vis--vis the sector's presence in the BSE 200 index, shows a report by Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOFS). In the case of the IT sector, only six of the 20 fund houses had overweight positions.
Large Indian IT services companies are expected to report "muted" sequential show in a traditionally strong second quarter, as macroeconomic challenges continue to weigh on global discretionary spending, say market watchers. The big earnings week for tech heavyweights is up ahead, with Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) scheduled to announce its results on October 11, and both Infosys and HCL Technologies on October 12. Wipro is slated to declare its Q2FY24 results next week, on October 18.
Corporate India's net profit as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) dipped in the 2022-23 financial year (FY23) -- after rebounding sharply in FY22 -- amid a decline in global commodity prices. Top 500 companies' combined net profit stood at 4.1 per cent of the GDP for FY23, down from 4.3 per cent in the previous financial year when it had gone up from just 3.5 per cent in FY21. "The year-on-year (YoY) decline was led by global commodities, which contributed adversely to the ratio, while the financial sector contributed positively.
Announcement of macroeconmic data such as industrial production and inflation, the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision along with trends in global equities would dictate movement in the stock market this week, analysts said. Besides, foreign fund trading activity would also guide the trends in equities. "All eyes are now on the US Fed policy outcome for cues, which is scheduled on June 14. In the following sessions, the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of Japan (BoJ) will also announce their policy decisions.
Shares of Reliance Industries (RIL) traded 2 per cent higher at Rs 2,310.10 on the BSE in intra-day trade in an otherwise volatile market after the company reported a 27.4 per cent year-on-year (YoY) growth in its consolidated net profit at Rs 17,394 crore for the September quarter (Q2FY24). While revenue growth of the company was flattish YoY at Rs 2.32 trillion, the profit rose on the back of operational improvement across most segments, especially higher profits in the O2C (oil-to-chemicals) and oil & gas businesses, as well as the retail business. "Strong operational and financial contribution from all business segments has helped Reliance deliver another quarter of robust growth," said Mukesh Ambani, chairman and managing director of the company.
Closely watched by the world for any escalation, the Iran-Israel conflict is already showing early signs of stress for India Inc - longer deliveries, doubling freight rates, extended working capital cycles, and higher costs. For those yet to feel the heat, there is growing apprehension and nervousness over future developments, observed industry executives.
Operating margins have been the primary driver of corporate earnings in India in recent quarters, despite revenue growth suffering from weak consumer demand. Companies across sectors have reported a sharp improvement in earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation (Ebitda) margins over the past two years, benefiting from lower commodity and energy prices. Higher margins more than compensated for slower revenue growth, resulting in double-digit growth in net profit for five consecutive quarters.
The domestic equity market, which is on a record-breaking spree, will focus on macroeconomic data announcements, movement in global stocks and the US Fed minutes to get further direction, analysts said. Trading activity of Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) will also innfluence investors.From the domestic macroeconomic front, Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data for the manufacturing sector will be released on Monday, and that o,f the services sector on Wednesday. Investors, this week, will keenly watch major global market events, icluding the outcome of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes, scheduled to be out on Wednesday.
Infosys was the only large-cap IT player to report sequential constant currency (cc) revenue growth for the June quarter (1 per cent ), which was ahead of analyst expectations, but the company's sharp downward revision in its growth guidance took most brokerages by surprise. In line with the cut in its FY24 revenue guidance (cc) to 1-3.5 per cent, brokerages have unanimously reduced FY24 EPS estimates for the company in the range of 2-4 per cent, though the Street is likely fearing even further downside, they say. Global brokerages Macquarie and Nomura downgraded Infosys to underperform and reduce ratings, respectively, with the latter cutting the target price to Rs 1210 from Rs 1260.
Airline stocks have been soaring following a steep decline in crude oil prices and sustained passenger traffic. Analysts have particularly turned bullish on the stocks of InterGlobe Aviation and SpiceJet. On December 20, shares of InterGlobe Aviation (IndiGo) hit a record high of Rs 3,009 on the BSE, having surged 43.24 per cent year-to-date (YTD).
Shrinking inflows and surging outflows on account of profit-booking has curtailed mutual fund (MF) investments in equities since April. The total investments made by equity MFs during the first three months of 2023-24 stands at just Rs 2,980 crore, compared with an average monthly investment of Rs 14,500 crore in 2022-23, reveals data from the Securities and Exchange Board of India. "We are seeing signs of moderation in non-systematic investment plan (SIP) contribution, which has impacted domestic fund inflows in recent months to some extent," says Kunal Vora, head-India equity research, BNP Paribas.
Equity market sentiment this week will be guided by global trends in the absence of any major domestic triggers, while bourses may also see some volatility amid expiry of derivatives contracts, analysts said. Fears of sooner-than-expected tapering in monetary stimulus by the US Federal Reserve, rising cases of the Delta variant of the coronavirus coupled with China's regulatory crackdown triggered selling in global markets in the previous week.
India's biggest non-bank finance company, Bajaj Finance (BAF), is set to raise capital after a gap of four years. On October 5, the board of directors will meet to approve the fund raise by way of preferential issue and/or qualified institutional placement (QIP) subject to regulatory and shareholder approvals. The move, analysts said, comes ahead of expectations, and could be in the wake of simmering competition in the consumer lending space, especially with the launch of Jio Financial Services (Jio Fin). "While we still do not have finer details on the game-plan of Jio Financial, it has plans to initially foray into consumer and merchant lending.
Weakness in HDFC Bank's net interest margin (NIM) might have bottomed out in the July-September quarter (Q2-FY24), analysts said on Tuesday, as most of the merger-related one-time adjustments have been done. The bank, they believe, should be able to grow from here on, allowing the stock to reverse its underperformance. "The weak NIM print was not unexpected given the merger and regulatory impact caused by the incremental cash reserve ratio (ICRR; 5-10 bps for the quarter).
The Reserve Bank of India's latest order prohibiting Bajaj Finance from sanctioning and disbursing loans under its 'eCOM' and 'Insta EMI Card' products may not have serious implications on the non-banking finance company's profitability, provided the ban is lifted within six to eight weeks, analysts said. "In a surprise move, the RBI has asked Bajaj Finance to stop sanction and disbursal under two of its digital lending products. "While the move is negative, the speed of correction will be key to reinstate products," global brokerage Jefferies said in a report.
Corporate earnings got a big boost from the fall in commodity and energy prices in July-September 2023 (Q2FY24) despite a slowdown in revenue growth during the quarter. The combined net profits of 3,123 firms that have declared their results so far were up 38 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) to Rs 3.07 trillion in Q2FY24, up from Rs 2.24 trillion a year ago. Earnings were, however, down 3.5 per cent on a sequential basis from Rs 3.18 trillion in April-June (Q1) FY24.
The past 18 months have seen a resurgence in the real estate industry, with developers regaining the ground lost to the Covid-19 pandemic. But it is once again adding inventory at a pace faster than sales. The industry's inventory rose by 28 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) in H1FY24, com-pared to a 25.5 per cent year-on-year increase in net sales during the same period.
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